Sunday, November 11, 2012

Election Numbers

The November 6th, 2012 election seems to be portrayed as an upset for the Republicans, but an "upset" is usually defined as an unexpected result.  Most polls indicated the election was going to come out the way it did, so how was it an upset?  It was only an upset if you relied on Rasmussen, Gallup, and Republican operatives at the polls as sources of information.

The below graph indicates how Rassmusen and Gallup polling was reading the American public up to a week prior to the election.
(The Blue line represents voters for Obama, The Red line is for Romney.)



It was revealing that extreme king pins of the Republican Party such as Rush Limbaugh and Karl Rove were under the impression Romney was way ahead in the election, and publicly announced that their inside information indicated Romney was going to win, especially in Ohio.  Karl Rove actually made an appearance on Fox News during election night to attempt to reverse the decision that their staff made regarding Ohio going to Obama.  It was surprising that Fox News allowed this challenge to be on the air, let alone to resist Karl Rove's influence on the station in the end.  Rush Limbaugh claimed that according to his information Romney was going to win by over 300 electoral votes.  Romney only received 206 electoral votes indicating that Rush Limbaugh's data has over a 30% error?  I doubt that a professional polling agency would tolerate such results in their office, and it makes me wonder how Rush Limbaugh tolerates his data to have such error rates.  It seems obvious to me at least that Rove, Rush, Gallup, and Rassmusen were up to their old tricks of exaggerating issues for their socioeconomic interests.

The power that the rich and powerful have over our air waves and elections was revealed that night by how much their own employees and agents were deceiving them.  The yes men came out of the woodwork and into the lime lite.  This is a clear example of how greedy among us attract the company they deserve.  It also shows how propaganda can be used to whip up voter confidence, and possibly to encourage donations to a party.

I am sure there will be a shake up of the current framework, and people will be fired, and demoted, and others promoted and hired.  In two years there may be a more accurate accounting of polls.  However, it is most likely that the same tactics will be used in some fashion when we have another election in the United States, and it is unfortunate that credibility and honesty is not expected by the extreme right's audience.

*Note 11/20/12: According to allegations by individuals claiming to be associated with Anonymous, the hacktivist group, Karl Rove and associates were attempting to hack election devices in various key states during the election, and were stopped by hackers in the group Anonymous.  These individuals also allege to have proof of tampering by Karl Rove and will release the proof if any further tampering is performed in future elections.  If true, this would explain why Karl Rove was so convinced that the Republicans had Ohio, when they really lost it.  On the other hand, this may be totally untrue.  -link